Keitany favourite for London/NY double

The withdrawal of reigning champion and world champion Edna Kiplagat leaves Mary Keitany as the pre-race favourite. Firstly, the Kenyan is unbeaten at all distances this year and she's exactly three minutes faster than the second-best athlete in the field (Inga Abitova at 2:22:19).

Here's my look at the ten most likely candidates to win the women's race.

		PB	Chances
1	Mary Keitany	2:19:19	While the opposition is of a very high standard, it's still difficult to look past Keitany, who proved she's just as accomplished at the full marathon distance with a 2:19:19 performance in London this spring. The world half-marathon record-holder, who finished third on her debut last year, is a much more experienced marathon-runner now and she knows the course too. Unbeaten this year, Keitany's most recent performance was a 67:54 half-marathon in Lisbon where she defeated some of her leading rivals. Perhaps the only point of contention is the fact that, unlike London which Keitany dominated, this race will be devoid of pacemakers. This race should test her tactical mettle.
2	Caroline Kilel	2:22:36	She might not have the super-fast times which someone like Keitany owns but Kilel is a proven winner which counts for a lot in a tactical-oriented race. The Kenyan won Frankfurt last autumn in 2:23:25 before stepping up in class to win Boston in a PB where she overcame Desiree Davila in the closing stages for a two-second victory. Such experience might stand her in good stead as New York has a tradition of close finishes.
3	Kim Smith	2:25:21	Is Smith yet to fulfil her promise at the marathon or will she always be better at the shorter distances? The New Zealander has run four marathons – DNF'ing in two – including Boston this year, where she was lamed by a calf injury which forced her to retire from the race. Smith, however, is one of the in-form athletes with a recent half-marathon PB of 67:11 and a top-five finish last year shows she might favour a more tactical contest.
4	Buzunesh Deba	2:23:31	Domestic interest might not be particularly high as most of the leading American runners are focusing on next year's Olympic Trials but Buzunesh Deba – an Ethiopian-born Bronx resident – could become the first New York-based athlete to win since the race expanded to all five boroughs in 1976. Deba might not be a household name yet but the 24-year-old won a series of third-tier marathons last year, before stepping up to win Los Angeles in 2:26:34 and San Diego in 2:23:31.
5	Werknesh Kidane	2:26:15	The wife of Gebre Gebremariam could make a name for herself on the roads of New York as Kidane has showed a semblance of the form which made her one of the world's best long-distance runners in the mid-00s. Since making a 2:27:15 debut in Dubai in January, the trajectory has continued to point upwards. This was followed by an improvement to 2:26:15 in Boston and more recently Kidane posted a half-marathon PB of 67:26. The Ethiopian is renowned used to be a superb cross-country exponent and such pedigree could play to her benefit as the closing stages are undulating.
6	Jessica Augusto	2:24:33	Augusto has been a very good athlete at every distance from 1500m up to the half-marathon (and the steeplechase too) but the Portuguese seems to have found her niche at the full marathon distance. Her debut in London proved an instantaneous success as she finished eighth in 2:24:33 and she seemed to have plenty left in the tank. The death of her father affected her track campaign but Augusto has been regaining her best shape in recent weeks with two sub-70 half-marathons.
7	Inga Abitova	2:22:19	The Russian is something of an unknown quantity. She hasn't raced since finishing 15th in London, albeit with a sub-2:27 performance, and she was forced to withdraw from Chicago with illness and it's difficult to know what sort of shape she's in with no warm-up races on her CV. At her best, though, Abitova is arguably the second-best marathoner in the field.
8	Ana Dulce Felix	2:26:30	Like Augusto, Felix made a promising 2:26:30 debut in Vienna and while she finished ahead of Augusto over 10,000m at the World Championships, she's failed to break the 70-minute barrier for the half-marathon this autumn.
9	Isabellah Andersson	2:23:41	Andersson runs a lot of marathons but except for the Stockholm Marathon, the Kenyan-turned Swede is yet to win any of the main events on the calendar. The Swedish record-holder boasts consistency (3rd in Dubai, 7th at the Worlds) although she remains an outsider despite a sub-2:24 PB
10	Firehiwot Dado	2:24:13	The Ethiopian has a proven record in the second-tier of events with a trio of victories in Rome although New York will present a much tougher standard of opposition.