Crucial race for Kenyan Olympic selection

EMMANUEL MUTAI must have thought his course-record of 2:04:40 in London would have been good enough to seal Olympic selection but that victory has been eclipsed by a series of startling performances. Just some twenty four hours later, there was Geoffrey Mutai's world-best of 2:03:02 performance in Boston, where he was followed home by Moses Mosop who backed up his 2:03:06 debut with victory in Chicago in 2:05:37. Then, of course, came Patrick Makau's world record of 2:03:38 in Berlin which was almost beaten by Wilson Kiprotich who won in Frankfurt in 2:03:42 last week.

With Makau and two-time world champion Abel Kirui pre-selected for the Olympic Games, you'd have to imagine the Kenyan selectors will give the nod if one of the Mutais win tomorrow.

		PB	Chances
1	Geoffrey Mutai	2:03:02	Mutai performs well on all terrains but it's at the marathon where he really excels. He hasn't gone slower than 2:05:10 in his last three marathons and he's only finished outside the top-two once in his career. The 30-year-old returned to Boston in June where he posted a 10km PB of 27:19 to move into the top-ten on the world all-time lists and while results at the shorter distances sometimes prove immaterial, it's still worth noting he finished more than a minute ahead of his namesake in a 10km race in July.
2	Emmanuel Mutai	2:04:40	He doesn't have a series of super-fast times but Emmanuel Mutai has laudable consistency in the high-tariff races. He was the runner-up at the World Championships in 2009, the runner-up in London last year in 2:06:23 and New York in 2:09:18 before he broke his duck with victory in London in 2:04:40. A half-marathon PB of 59:52 at the Great North Run bodes well for his second big-city marathon victory of the year and the hills on the South Shields course might prove to be good practice for the closing stages in Central Park.
3	Tsegaye Kebede	2:05:18	The Ethiopian won London last year in 2:05:19 before finishing second in Chicago although he only finished fifth in London this year in 2:07:48 which was his slowest time in a big-city event since his debut in 2007. Kebede's form is difficult to judge given London has been his only race of the year but unlike some of his compatriots, Kebede missed the World Championships so he should be on fresh legs.
4	Gebre Gebremariam	2:04:53	The reigning champion has the pedigree although his fitness has to be questioned given he pulled out of the World Championships with injury.
5	Feyisa Lelisa	2:05:23	Lelisa became the fastest 20-year-old when he posted a 2:05:23 performance in Rotterdam last year (albeit only good enough for fourth!) and while he hasn't matched this performance time-wise, he was one of the very select handful of Ethiopians to perform well in Daegu where he took the bronze medal.
6	Mathew Kisorio	Debut	To say the Kenyans have an embarrassment of riches in marathon-running is an understatement although they look set to have another star in the making as Kisorio makes his debut on the back of a 58:46 half-marathon PB in Philadelphia. Kisorio has the full-range too, including PBs on the track of 12:57.83 and 26:54.25 and he was also fourth at the World Cross-Country Championships. While he certainly boasts credentials at the shorter distances, it's sensible to be a bit cautious with predictions as it often takes a few attempts to get to grips with the distance (Keitany in last year's women's race, for example).
7	Jaouad Gharib	2:05:27	The former two-time world champion is still running well at 39. He won Fukuoka last year in 2:08:24 and finished sixth in London in 2:08:26 but he probably won't be giving the Kenyans too much to worry about.
8	Meb Keflezighi	2:09:15	Keflezighi has achieved a great deal in his marathon career considering his relatively modest PB. He won this race in 2009 but he shouldn't threaten the podium this year.
9	Viktor Rothlin	2:07:23	The Swiss is a smart tactician who always performs well in the major championships but he doesn't seem to be operating at his 2007-08 level.
10	Bobby Curtis	Debut	The American has a 10,000m PB of 27:24.67 and a half-marathon PB of 61:52 which should stand him in good stead.