Monday, 22 August 2011

Daegu forecast: men's predictions

100m – Harry Aikines-Aryeetey (SB 10.13), Dwain Chambers (10.01), Marlon Devonish (10.14)
Chambers has dipped under the 10.1-barrier six times this year and his 10.13 into a 1.6 m/s headwind in Madrid shows he could threaten the 10-second barrier again which will suffice for the final although I don't see him threatening the medals. Aikines-Aryeetey has been consistent although a lot of his best runs have come in favourable conditions in Switzerland although his sea-level performances indicate a semi-final finish. Except for his 10.14 at the UK Championships, Devonish hasn't been in great form this year.

200m – James Ellington (20.52), Christian Malcolm (20.54)
Malcolm has a good record at peaking for the major championships (see Olympic Games and European Championships) and his 10.17 100m at the UK Championships was his fastest in a decade. Ellington has emerged as one of Britain's best 200m runners although the qualifying conditions are tough with just three rounds. Hopefully both athletes will make the semis although Malcolm will need to be in 20.3 shape to make the final.

400m – Martyn Rooney (45.44)
A lot of people have been expecting Rooney to approach his 2008 level but it hasn't been clicking for him. He won the UK title in 45.44 but he way was off the pace at Crystal Palace. Despite the poor standards of 400m running this year, I don't see him making the world final.

800m – Andrew Osagie (1:45.36), Mike Rimmer (1:45.12)
Rimmer started his year with his fastest ever opener but his preparations have been curtailed since his 1:45.12 in May. I'd assume he's feeling in better shape now than recent weeks because he'll just go out in the heats if recent performances are anything to go by and he's clearly a much better athlete than that. Osagie has looked good in recent weeks and he's acquitted himself well at the major championships he's contested. Given the unpredictable nature of the semi-finals, making the final isn't far-fetched, although it is somewhat improbable.

1500m – James Shane (3:36.22)
He ran very well at the UK Championships and he showed good tactical nous at the European Team Championships. I think he'll progress from his heat but I'm not sure he's good enough to make the final yet. 
 
5000m – Mo Farah (12:53.11)
Farah hasn't fully committed himself to the 5000m and I favour him a bit more in the 10,000m. Not only will he be on tired legs, the 5000m is often a much more tactically oriented affair and it looks the stronger event of the two. I'd probably favour Lagat just ahead of Farah in a champs environment.

10,000m – Mo Farah (26:46.57)
Farah defeated most of his leading rivals in Eugene although he hasn't disregarded Kenenisa Bekele despite the fact he hasn't raced on the track in two years. Zersenay Tadese showed he can run very well in hot and humid conditions (World Cross in Mombasa) although I'm not sure he's in the shape to outrun Farah and he'll be confident against Tadese on the last lap. I think Farah has a great chance to win.

110m hurdles – Lawrence Clarke (13.58), William Sharman (13.47), Andy Turner (13.22)
Turner's form has been starting to wane a little bit although he put his disappointing performance in CP down to race-rustiness. Something in the 13.2-13.3 region should suffice for the final. Sharman won't replicate his Berlin performance although he's come in on the back of a season's best but I don't see him going any further than the semi-finals this time. Clarke's due a PB as most of his performances this year have been into headwinds.

400m hurdles – Jack Green (48.98), Dai Greene (48.20), Nathan Woodward (48.71)
Greene won't have raced at the hurdles in over a month by the time of the heats but his early season form is good enough to make him a strong medal contender. He hasn't finished outside the top-three in a 400m hurdles race since July 2010 and he's a renowned champs performer. Green and Woodward should make the semi-finals unless their long seasons catch up with them.

4x100m – Aikines-Aryeetey, Devonish, Ellington, Lewis-Francis, Malcolm, Pickering, Talbot (38.60)
Assuming the baton doesn't get dropped, the British quartet should contend for bronze with Trinidad & Tobago and France.

4x400m – Buck, Clark, Green, Greene, Lennon-Ford, Levine, Rooney, Strachan (3:03.53)
The Americans will be a class apart although at best the British quartet isn't any weaker than the rest of the pack.

High jump – Martyn Bernard (2.28m), Tom Parsons (2.31i/2.28m)
Bernard, in particular, is a reliable championships performer. They should both make the final (Parsons to a lesser extent) but a top-eight finish is probably the best they can aim for.

Pole vault – Steve Lewis (5.62m)
Hasn't really been vaulting that well this year and he'll probably need something in the region of his season's best to make the final.

Long jump – Greg Rutherford (8.32w, 8.27m), Chris Tomlinson (8.35m)
Apart from Mitchell Watt, nobody's really distanced themselves from the pack. Medals are up for grabs if they nail their best jumps in the final.

Triple jump – Phillips Idowu (17.59m)
Idowu looked flat at Crystal Palace and despite the absence of Tamgho, Christian Taylor emerged as a possible gold medal candidate. However, Idowu's five longest jumps have all come at major championships and the reigning champion converted a disappointing CP performance into a world title in 2009.

Discus – Abdul Buhari (65.44m), Brett Morse (66.06m), Carl Myerscough (65.04m)
Myerscough has the best chance of making the final. He's a perennial finalist in the shot put and he should benefit from changing disciplines as he struggled with qualifying being on the same day as the final in the shot put. Morse has been the most consistent although it worries me as he NM'ed at the European Under-23 Champs and at the 2008 World Juniors. Buhari is the most improved but didn't throw well at CP and doesn't have much international experience.

Marathon – Andrew Lemoncello (2:15:24), Lee Merrien (2:14:27), Dave Webb (2:17:41)
They don't have super-fast times but someone like Dan Robinson has showed how running even paced will reward you with a high placing.

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