THE organisers have attracted pretty much all of the world's best marathoners to this race including the reigning champion Tsegaye Kebede from Ethiopia and Patrick Makau from Kenya, who was many people's world's leading marathoner in 2010. Here's a look at the leading contenders and their chances in this year's race.
Patrick Makau – 2:04:48 (5/2)
MAKAU enjoyed a prosperous 2010 campaign with high-profile victories in Rotterdam in 2:04:47 and Berlin in 2:05:08 so it comes as no surprise the Kenyan is the joint favourite with Kebede. The only concern is Makau finished adrift of the leading contenders in a half-marathon in Ras Al Khaimah in February but early-season form can often be disregarded when it comes to race day. This race might have occurred during a heavy block of marathon training and even if Makau wasn't at full fitness, he's had the best part of two months to iron out any problems.
Tsegaye Kebede – 2:05:18 (5/2)
THE reigning champion starts as many people's pre-race favourites and this mantle is strengthened in the absence of Olympic champion Sammy Wanjiru who pipped Kebede for the Chicago Marathon title last autumn. Kebede hasn't raced at all in the build-up but this is normal for the Olympic bronze medallist who races very sparingly, if at all, outside of the big-city marathons. Second in 2009 in 2:05:20 and the winner in 2:05:19, I favour Kebede to claim his second title with another sub-2:06 winning performance.
James Kwambai – 2:04:27 (6/1)
HIS breakthrough performance into the big-time came in Rotterdam in 2009 when he finished second to Duncan Kibet in a joint Kenyan record of 2:04:27 for No.2 on the world all-time lists but the 28-year-old hasn't broken the 2:10-barrier since then. However, Kwambai seems to be approaching his best form again as he comes in with a 60:01 half-marathon performance to his credit, showing Kwambai might still have a few good marathons left in his legs.
Abel Kirui – 2:05:04 (7/1)
KIRUI is focusing on fast times in 2011 instead of a defence of his world marathon title in Daegu but is he really in the shape to run that fast? He was a solid fifth in 2:08:04 last year but a bout of typhoid left him weakened for New York, where he placed ninth in 2:13:01. He's also been beset by pneumonia and malaria this winter which can account for his under-par performance in the Paris half-marathon last month.
Jaouad Gharib – 2:05:27 (8/1)
THE evergreen Moroccan is the fifth favourite for the title but even though the former two-time world champion has retained competitive form even at the age of 38, I can't see Gharib claiming the title. A big-city victory is still a noteworthy omission from his CV and considering the standard of competition, a fifth podium finish in London looks a more realistic goal.
Emmanuel Mutai – 2:06:15 (10/1)
MUTAI, like Gharib, is a very consistent performer but he's yet to take a major victory although, unlike Gharib, he does have time on his side. The Kenyan was the runner-up to Kirui at the World Championships, the runner-up to Kebede last year and the runner-up to Gebre Gebremariam in New York.
Martin Lel – 2:05:15 (12/1)
IS Lel still a genuine contender or a spent force? The 32-year-old has taken a hat-trick of victories from this race but he's been beset by injuries ever since his third victory in 2008 in 2:05:15. He was a late replacement for Sammy Wanjiru which shows this race wasn't originally part of his plans.
Yonas Kifle – 2:07:34 (25/1)
THE Eritrean's recent marathon record makes rather patchy reading. He was a non-finisher at the World Championships and could only finish ninth in London last year in 2:14:39. A fourth successive top-ten finish should still be within his scope though.
Abderrahim Bouramdane – 2:07:33 (33/1)
HE was a creditable fourth in last year's race and he's also amassed a runner-up finish from Boston in 2008 as well as successive fifth-place finishes in the New York Marathon. For an athlete who is some way down on the leading competitors in terms of lifetime best performances, this is a good résumé. A top-six finish is a realistic target.
Viktor Rothlin – 2:07:23 (40/1)
THE Swiss athlete recovered from a pulmonary embolism to win the European marathon title last year and he makes his debut at the Virgin London Marathon. His goal is to run one of his top three fastest times.
Marilson Gomes dos Santos – 2:08:37 (66/1)
DOS SANTOS is twice a winner in New York but his record isn't as distinguished in London. He was sixth last year.
Andrew Lemoncello – 2:13:40 (100/1)
THE former steeplechaser made a good debut in this race last year finishing eighth and we can infer he's capable of something faster based on a 63:00 half-marathon performance in New York.
Prediction
ONLY Sammy Wanjiru has been able to deny Kebede in recent years and Tsegaye Kebede must be feeling confident about his chances with Wanjiru out of the race. Despite a question mark over his current fitness, Patrick Makau is the leading Kenyan runner with Emmanuel Mutai and the Moroccans always have representation in the top-eight.
1. Kebede, 2. Makau, 3. Mutai, 4. Gharib, 5, Kwambai, 6. Bouramdane
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