NINE athletes in the women's elite field boast sub-2:23 PBs and not included in this bracket are world half-marathon record-holder Mary Keitany and New York Marathon champion Edna Kiplagat. This must be the best ever field for a non-championships marathon.
The favourites
Liliya Shobukhova (Russia) – PB 2:20:25
SHOBUKHOVA was imperious last year as she won this title in 2:22:00 which was followed by a national record of 2:20:25 en route to victory in Chicago. The 33-year-old is a former world indoor 3000m record-holder which shows she's a strong finisher and the Russian has a good tactical brain, as she ran a well-measured race in winning the Chicago title last year. The reigning champion clearly has a sub-2:20 marathon in her legs.
Mary Keitany (Kenya) – PB 2:29:01
FINISHING third in New York is by no means a performance to turn your nose up at, particularly on your debut, but much more is expected of the Kenyan, who improved the world half-marathon record to 65:50 in February. Keitany faded in the closing stages on her debut but the former world half-marathon champion still has to be among the favourites if she can gauge the distance.
Irina Mikitenko (Germany) – PB 2:19:19
2010 was very much a year to forget for the German veteran but Mikitenko seems to be on the up again having dropped out of this race last year. The former two-time champion won a 10km road-race in her homeland in 32:06 which shows the 38-year-old is returning to a good level of fitness.
Aselefech Mergia (Ethiopia) – PB 2:22:38
THE Ethiopian enjoyed a smooth transition from the half-marathon to the full distance and the 26-year-old claimed her first career win in Dubai in January where she set a world-leading mark of 2:22:45.
The outsiders
Zhou Chunxiu (China) – 2:19:51
THE Chinese might no longer be in the shape which brought her a sub-2:20 clocking in Seoul in 2006 but the former champion is still a consistent performer. She won the Asian Games title last year in 2:25:00.
Atsede Bayisa (Ethiopia) – 2:22:04
A prolific racer, Bayisa has already competed in fourteen marathon at the age of 23. Highlights include victory in Paris last year in 2:22:04 as well as a runner-up finish to Shobukhova in Chicago. Bayisa started her season in Dubai, clocking 2:25:08 for fifth.
Inga Abitova (Russia) – 2:22:19
AFTER a lack of initial success at the distance, Abitova marked her breakthrough at 26-miles with a win in Yokohama in 2009. This was followed with a runner-up finish on this course last year and a good run in New York.
Mariya Konovalova (Russia) – 2:23:50
THE former 5000m specialist finished off the pace on her debut last year but Konovalova soon found her range in Chicago, finishing third in a lifetime best.
Bezunesh Bekele (Ethiopia) – 2:23:09
BEKELE narrowly missed the podium last year, finishing fourth in 2:23:17.
Aberu Kebede (Ethiopia) – 2:23:58
THE 21-year-old delivered a trio of world-class performances in 2010, including wins in Rotterdam in 2:25:29 and Berlin in 2:23:58.
Edna Kiplagat (Kenya) – 2:25:58
A precocious junior athlete in the mid-90s, the Kenyan prevailed in a tactical encounter in New York last year but how will she fare when the pace is likely to be faster?
The leading Brits
BRITAIN will by no means be lacking representation in the elite race despite the absence of Paula Radcliffe and Mara Yamauchi. Jo Pavey will be making her debut at the distance and the Athens Olympic fifth placer arrives in good form, recently finishing sixth in the New York half-marathon in 69:33.
Two-time Olympian Liz Yelling has raced well in the build-up and the Bedford & County athlete is aiming for a sub-2:31 performance in order to put herself in the fray for her third Olympic Games berth.
Louise Damen defeated Yelling, among others, at the national cross-country championships in February and the Winchester athlete will be making her first attempt at the distance. The 28-year-old has a good set of credentials on the road including a half-marathon PB of 70:47 which augurs well for a successful debut.
Last year's race reviewed
IRINA MIKITENKO had established herself as the world's leading marathoner in 2008 and 2009 but the writing was very much on the wall for the German as Liliya Shobukhova superseded the reigning two-time champion as the supreme athlete over 26.2-miles.
Shobukhova finished third behind Mikitenko on her debut in 2009 and despite finishing some way adrift, the Russian gained some 20 seconds on the winner in the final 2.195km. In Chicago, Shobukhova judged her pace much better as she handed Mikitenko her first defeat at the marathon distance in more than two years. Such was the manner of her closing speed, Shobukhova covered the final 2.195km faster than Sammy Wanjiru did in the men's race!
Based on this performance, Shobukhova was very much the athlete to beat and the European 5000m record-holder confirmed her ability at the marathon as she eased to victory ahead of Inga Abitova. Shobukhova, who crossed the line in 2:22:00, ran a very measured race with splits of 70:56 and 71:04. Aselefech Mergia led a brace of Ethiopians in third.
Mikitenko dropped out of the race with a calf injury but even so, she would have needed to be at her very best to stay with Shobukhova.
1. Liliya Shobukhova (RUS) 2:22:00, 2. Inga Abitova (RUS) 2:22:19, 3. Aselefech Mergia (ETH) 2:22:38, 4. Bezunesh Bekele (ETH) 2:23:17, 5. Askale Tafa (ETH) 2:24:39, 6. Yukiko Akaba (JPN) 2:24:55, 7. Bai Xue (CHN) 2:25:18, 8. Kim Smith (NZL) 2:25:21, 9. Mari Ozaki (JPN) 2:25:43, 10. Mara Yamauchi (GBR) 2:26:16
2011 prediction
IT'S very difficult to look past the defending champion when forecasting this year's race. Shobukhova didn't look particularly stressed en route to victory last year and her performance at last year's Chicago Marathon was noteworthy as she set a Russian record of 2:20:25 despite warm temperatures. Shobukhova hasn't raced in the build-up but this isn't anything to worry about as the Russian marathoners tend to race sparingly away from the big-city marathons.
The greatest threat to Shobukhova might come from Kenya's Mary Keitany. Unlike the lightly raced Shobukhova, Keitany set a world half-marathon record of 65:50 in Ras Al Khaimah in February which shows she's the in-form athlete but a fast half-marathon in the build-up doesn't necessarily translate to success at the full distance. Just ask Zersenay Tadese, who set a world record of 58:23 in Lisbon last year before failing to finish in London.
The likes of Berhane Adere and Derartu Tulu are on the wane but Ethiopia boast a vast array of up-and-coming athletes who have been making a great impact in big-city marathons in the past eighteen months. Aselefech Mergia made the podium last year and she's already in good form, having set a world-leading mark in Dubai in January.
Prediction: 1. Shobukhova, 2. Mergia, 3. Keitany, 4. Mikitenko, 5. Kebede, 6. Abitova
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